Metaculus

We believe this will provide Open Metaculus, our grantees, and many others with metaculus tools for effective planning in high-priority areas such as mitigating extreme risks from AI and synthetic pathogens. This follows our July support and falls within our work on global catastrophic risks. This falls within our focus area of potential This falls

Metaculus is an American reputation-based , massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions. Users can earn points for successful predictions or lose points for unsuccessful predictions , and track their own predictive progress. In June , the Metaculus Prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user predictions. Contents move to sidebar hide. Article Talk.

Metaculus

This follows our May support and falls within our work on global catastrophic risks. We believe this will provide Open Philanthropy, our grantees, and many This falls within our focus area of potential This falls Close menu. Table of Contents. Related Items. Read more. Back to Grants Database. We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent. Cookie Settings Accept All. Manage consent. Close Privacy Overview This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website.

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Prediction Resources. Public Data Explorer. Very large Public Data Explorer aggregates public data from dataset providers such as international organizations, national statistical offices, non-governmental organizations, and research institutions. Very Easy This is a good place to start with your search for data, since many datasets are available which are often straightforward to find. There are sometimes also great visualizations. This is perhaps the best place to look for public data and forecasts provided from third-party data providers Highly recommended also is the International Futures Forecasting Data on long-term forecasting and global trend analysis available on the Public Data Explorer. Small Our World in Data aggregates some hundreds of datasets, all of which are organized well and given appropriate context. Very Easy There are excellent visualizations. Each topic the quality of the data is discussed and, by pointing the visitor to the sources, this website is also a database of databases. Covering all of these aspects in one resource makes it possible to understand how the observed long-run trends are interlinked.

Metaculus

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine that brings together a global reasoning community and keeps score for thousands of forecasters, delivering machine learning-optimized aggregate forecasts on topics of global importance. The Metaculus forecasting community is often inspired by altruistic causes, and Metaculus has a long history of partnering with nonprofit organizations, university researchers and companies to increase the positive impact of its forecasts. Metaculus therefore poses questions about the occurrence of a variety of future events, on many timescales, to a community of participating forecasters — you! Forecasting is a systematic practice of attempting to answer questions about future events. On Metaculus, we follow a few principles to elevate forecasting above simple guesswork:.

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Online prediction markets began cropping up in the late s, focusing on everything from movie box office receipts to the outcome of presidential elections. Researchers have speculated that prediction markets are more successful when they include a diversity of informed opinions.

Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience. Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions. Close menu. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent. Others Others. The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies.