Electoral calculus

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Electoral calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model , which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. Across the eight general elections from to [8]. It was listed by The Guardian in as one of the " most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions.

But it's too late for Labour".

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Paul Whiteley correlates Labour and Conservative vote intentions data with the actual polling day results in all UK general elections since Among his findings is the fact that the Conservative vote share consistently appears to be more predictable than that of Labour, suggesting that Labour support is more volatile than Conservative support. The veteran journalist and former president of the polling company YouGov, Peter Kellner, recently revealed one of the worst kept secrets in the polling industry. This is the fact that some pollsters tweak their eve-of-poll forecasts just before a general election because they are afraid of getting it wrong. A pollster who gets it wrong can face significant reputational damage, even though election forecasting is only a relatively minor aspect of their business. They are tempted to adjust their voting intention data and follow the crowd, even if this is not always a good idea. Clearly a likely outcome of a general election if it were to be held now would be a hung Parliament. But how accurate are the polls in the long run, as opposed to the immediate future? This is a relatively neglected issue since all pollsters emphasise that they are taking the political temperature of the country at a single point of time when voting intentions can change rapidly in the future.

Electoral calculus

Read the headline prediction, and also see the full details about which seats would be won and lost if there were a general election tomorrow. Our current headline prediction for what would happen if there were a UK General Election tomorrow. Make your own predictions both for the entire country and for any particular Westminster constituency in England, Scotland and Wales. See predictions for your own seat, including ward-level predictions, an interactive map, and political and demographic characteristics. Visit our Scotland home page for polls, predictions, and the chance to make your own predictions for the next Westminster election in Scotland.

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Companies House does not verify the accuracy of the information filed link opens a new window. But it's too late for Labour". Electoral Calculus. You can change your cookie settings at any time. An independent UK election prediction site maintained by Martin Baxter. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. Accounts Next accounts made up to 31 May due by 28 February Last accounts made up to 31 May We'd also like to use analytics cookies so we can understand how you use our services and to make improvements. Download as PDF Printable version. You've rejected analytics cookies.

Click on the map image to go to a full browsable map of the all the new seats.

You can change your cookie settings at any time. The Guardian. Retrieved 25 May We'd also like to use analytics cookies so we can understand how you use our services and to make improvements. Electoral Calculus. British political forecasting web site. You've accepted analytics cookies. Companies House does not verify the accuracy of the information filed link opens a new window. Follow this company File for this company. Last accounts made up to 31 May Tell us what you think of this service link opens a new window Is there anything wrong with this page? Retrieved 28 May But it's too late for Labour".